The Power of Four

Myself and a lad I know were talking about the transfers and who needs to move clubs this year when we hit on a formula. It's the following:

If your fourth choice in your position at a club and your more than one season out of the academy you need to move.

Obviously there are different circumstances such as props but it seems sound enough. Interestingly if we apply it to the Provinces then neither Ulster or Connacht have a player that meets this specification (but one who I'll talk about at the end.)

Leinster have two:

Darren Hudson: A superb winger/fullback this should have being Hudson's year with Nacewa, Conway and Carr gone the way was clear for him to start vying with the other Leinster back three players for a spot. Instead Kirchner came in and then to add insult to injury Darragh Fanning. While the versatile Kirchner makes sense with Leinster's ambitions it must stick in Hudson's craw seeing Fanning a non-academy AIL player brought in in front of him. Verdict: Needs to move now.

Ben Marshall: With Mark Flanagan heading off to France for gametime and Cullen retiring next year you would have expected to see Marshall playing some matches this season but so far he hasn't started any with Toner/Macca being the new combination with Denton on the bench. Even when one of these are missing Quinn Roux or Cullen are usually knocking about. Also with Ruddock coming to the fore McLaughlin come be utilised more in the second row lessening his playing chances even further. Verdict: Might be worth to stay one more season with Cullen going but if Leinster make to sign a new second row he should leave like Flanagan did.

Munster

Paddy Butler: He's 4th choice right now behind Coughlan, POM, Stander except Munster have now gone and signed Robin Copeland which knocks him back to 5th choice. I like everyone else were wondering why Munster signed Copeland as Munster are strong in the two places he plays and with Donnacha Ryan re-signing it makes even less sense. With Ryan resigning we can expect to see a lot of Copeland/Ryan in the backrow crowding out the likes of Butler. If I was Paddy Butler I'd have started looking for a new club as soon as I heard Copeland was coming there. Verdict: Needs to leave.

Ian Nagle: Flannery talked about a bunch of guys in Munster who had no ambition to leave and become better players but were content to walk around Limerick/Cork and enjoy the minor celebrity of being a Munster player and no-one seems to epitomize this more than Nagle at the moment. Currently fifth or sixth choice he seems happy with a few games per season and is crossing his fingers that he does make the first team like Donnacha Ryan did in his late twenties. Verdict: Needs to leave now.

Connacht:

James Rael: Came here to Connacht and was 3rd choice but recently Dave Heffernan has come onto the scene and is now comfortably installed as our 3rd choice ahead of him. With Henry and Harris-Wright both very young nether are going anywhere unless injury raises it's ugly head. He came here to Connacht to get gametime and it hasn't happened yet. Should he move club again or stay and fight it out? He's still very young and getting Eagle's experience. Verdict: Another season and then we'll see.

Opinions?

Good post, puts Ben Marshall's continued absence into even harsher perspective. Lock is a weak position for Leinster and he still hasn't had a look in. Ditto Hudson, Kirchner came late in the season and Fitzgerald only recently came up to speed, you'd think he would have pushed harder for contention. Unless MOC has a soft spot for the gingers which has put Fanning and Denton ahead of the two lads in which case they've been hard done by....

I thought Rael was only on a one year development contract?

I thought Rael was only on a one year development contract?

Darren Hudson: A superb winger/fullback this should have being Hudson's year with Nacewa, Conway and Carr gone the way was clear for him to start vying with the other Leinster back three players for a spot. Instead Kirchner came in and then to add insult to injury Darragh Fanning. While the versatile Kirchner makes sense with Leinster's ambitions it must stick in Hudson's craw seeing Fanning a non-academy AIL player brought in in front of him. Verdict: Needs to move now.

True but they have got some sugar daddy behind them now so it's only a matter of time when they do. It's a good move for him imo. Their a team on the rise and he's not exactly well known enough to have a huge amount of premiership teams after him. Wouldn't have minded him coming here and competing for the 15 shirt but ce la vie.