Champions Cup 2019/20

I had to have a quick nip of the hip-flask once Pot 4 came out.

I suppose if we get Toulouse away in Round 2 (Nov 22nd) and Montpellier away in Round 3 (Dec 6th) or vice versa, we will all just spend two weeks in the south of France?

www.connachtrugby.ie/connacht-learn-hein...ponents-for-2019-20/

FIXTURES
Round 1: 15/16/17 November 2019
Round 2: 22/23/24 November 2019
Round 3: 6/7/8 December 2019
Round 4: 13/14/15 December 2019
Round 5: 10/11/12 January 2020
Round 6: 17/18/19 January 2020
Quarter-finals: 3/4/5 April 2020
Semi-finals: 1/2/3 May 2020
Final: 23 May 2020

OK so with the Toulouse win in Montpellier, our pool-topping prospects have evaporated (technically it can still be done if we get ten points, Toulouse get hammered at home to Gloucester, etc., but let's not be silly).
The silver lining is that Montpellier are effectively out already and all going well will be officially out by the time we go there, making two more wins a realistic target.
La Rochelle threw us a lifeline in our quest for a best second placed spot by beating Glasgow, who looked sure to get more points than us, and Leinster obliged us by not quite switching off for long enough to let Saints sneak a TBP.
If Glasgow and Northampton lose a game each then the two wins will do the job, no bonus points required. We could also possibly sneak ahead of Munster/Saracens if they both lose to Racing, but a bonus point or two would be needed for that since they will likely both stuff Ospreys.
Glasgow could easily lose one of their two (home to Exeter and away to Sale). Northampton will be harder beat since Lyon really aren't bothering much but who knows, they'll surely send a second string to the RDS the previous week so maybe they'll fancy one last hurrah to get ready for the visit of Toulon the week after. If anyone is travelling to Montpellier via Lyon, it might be worth stopping in for a look at that on Saturday.
If either Northampton or Glasgow wins both their games, then we're looking at needing a bonus point (probably two if Saints get a try bonus against Treviso). Our points difference will probably see us through if we're level.
Technically we can still do it if we lose a game and pick up a couple of BPs but that would take a bit of luck.
If Connacht scrape through as eighth seeds, the likely reward is a trip to Lansdowne Road to play Leinster so worth hanging in for ...

EDIT: In the confusion, I forgot to mention that obviously we need Gloucester to lose as well. I would expect them to beat Montpellier and lose to Toulouse, which would be perfect, but if they were to win both it'd probably be curtains as they have us on head to head if we finish level.

So here is this weekend's Who To Shout For Guide:

EPCR have very helpfully scheduled two dead rubbers for Friday night so the excitement will pretty much be on hold until Saturday. There's a buddy movie starring The Rock on TV3 that will have as much bearing on our fate as La Rochelle v Sale or Bath v Quins.

Saturday

1300 Ospreys v Saracens
We want an Ospreys win here. Saracens are two ahead of Connacht so if they lose this or at home to Racing next week, we can catch them.

1300 Clermont v Ulster
Ulster by 8+. Not that important really but there is a chance we can catch Clermont if they get nothing from their next two (though they should win easily next week so it's a long shot).

1515pm Glasgow v Exeter
This is the big one and unfortunately it clashes with our game. If Exeter win we would definitely get ahead of Glasgow with two wins. Bookies have Chiefs as slight favourites so this is the piece of the puzzle most likely to work out.

1730pm Gloucester v Montpellier
Not as crucial as you might think. If Connacht have beaten Toulouse by now, the best result is a draw as it puts Montpellier out while keeping Connacht ahead of Gloucester. Otherwise a Gloucester win ends Montpellier's chances while we rely on Toulouse to deal with Gloucester next weekend. If Connacht lose then we are basically goosed however if you still care, a Montpellier win is better in those circumstances as it gives us a shot at second place (though we'd need a few miracles to qualify).

Sunday

1300 Leinster v Lyon
Not that crucial. An unlikely away win would keep Lyon mathematically in contention and might encourage them to make more of an effort next weekend, when we may need them to beat Saints. On the other hand, a Leinster win sets up the prospect of a trip to Lansdowne Road for Connacht.

1300 Saints v Benetton
Leoni! Leoni! Bookies are giving the Italians a 21 point start. A win would blow qualification wide open and, allied with results in the Sportsground and Scotstoun, would put us in great shape. Obviously I wouldn't hold my breath. In the event that Toulouse win, this will probably be the point at which our campaign officially ends.

1515 Racing 92 v Munster
Don't shout too loudly as it will annoy the neighbours, but the predicted win for Racing with no LBP would keep Munster in our sights.