Challenge Cup 2018/19

Even if we pull off an away win in Sale, it would be hard work to get a top 2 seeding after leaving that TBP behind. We'll also need a favour from Pat and Mul to keep La Rochelle's points tally in check. With those two results we would have a half decent chance of top 2 and maybe something like a home quarter against Worcester/Bristol followed by potential home semi against Quins to set up a final with already-qualified Clermont.
I'm not exactly fancying a result in the AJ Bell though. Brewery Field six days later is definitely a higher priority on my list of targets.

Hard to predict anything better or worse than second place in the pool given Sale's greater efficiency in the bonus point market.
To win, we'd need them to lose one of their home games against the French teams they hammered away so we can forget about that as a realistic prospect.
Qualifying from second is very possible though, as points are fairly well shared out in the other pools. All second place teams have between 8-10 points (and there are a few third-placers on 7-8 who could come into play) so basically if we win our three remaining games, we just need no more than two of those teams to win all three, and with Saints going to Clermont and Bristol and Zebre both to go to La Rochelle, we should be OK.
Winning all three is of course far from assured given the rotation (the Blues game the week after round 6 is so much more a priority), but it's at least more or less in our own hands.
Bookies still have us 4th-6th favourites to win it (though the odds get pretty long after Clermont and La Rochelle).

MulMan wrote:

pinky wrote: Hard to predict anything better or worse than second place in the pool given Sale's greater efficiency in the bonus point market.
To win, we'd need them to lose one of their home games against the French teams they hammered away so we can forget about that as a realistic prospect.
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Today's result for Sale opens up 1st in the pool again, and a realistic shot at a home QF. I really do hope we target something in this competition as it's always been a disappointment to not go far in it.

MulMan wrote: the bonus points we left behind in the Bourdeaux and Perpignan home games could come back to bite us, also Sale getting the BP. Still though, it's now a real chance to top the group, maybe an away QF leading to a home semi might be better, ie if we finish 5th we play 4th win that and we'd likely have a home semi if the rules are as they used to be

The peculiarities of Siberian involvement mean that LA Rochelle and Zebre still have to play each other twice, so that pool is wide open. Bizarre that a top 2 seeding is now an outside chance.

connachta wrote: Don't forget, even a losing away SF may well qualify us for Champions Cup, as the main favorites for the final, Clermont and La Rochelle, will be alraedy qualified.
We should end playing 2 play-off games, Pro14 one, and if needed european one vs the other semi finalist, double chance

Actually I forgot to take Ospreys into account above, they should overhaul Worcester. If they were to get a home QF, that would be ideal, as if Connacht aren't top 3 in the conference, Ospreys probably will be.

Didn't realise they had tweaked the home advantage rules again. So winning an away QF doesn't get you any advantage anymore. The old hypothesis that you're better off being 5th seeds than 4th no longer applies.

If we can work enough magic to get ahead of Sale and Zebre knock a few points off La Rochelle in one of their two games, it could be a home QF against Zebre followed by a visit from La Rochelle that it mightn't even be necessary to win to qualify for the H Cup.
If we beat Sale but come up short on points, we'd probably be 6th seeds and go to Sale or La Rochelle.
Even if we lose one of the remaining games, there's a reasonable chance of squeaking in as 8th seeds and packing ourselves off to the Auvergne.